Over the last couple of months, Reddit user Megamanexe4 has managed to data-mine Destiny and successfully leak Xur’s stock over a number of weeks. This prediction fell flat a couple of times when Bungie changed Xur’s stock at the very last minute, right before he was due to arrive in the Tower. ‘How does this work?’, you may ask; Megaman has posted a Q&A to answer all your Xur-and-Destiny-related questions, revealing what really happens during those changeovers, and hinting at possible future stock.
In a previous post on Destiny‘s Xur, Megaman explained that the original stock he predicted for that weekend (15th of March) was altered, and that the weapon Red Death wasn’t present in the ‘original Xur’. He also suggests in this post, and his current Q&A, that Xur may sell Hard Light, Thunderlord, or MIDA Mult-Tool some time over the next few weeks, given that they’re the Exotics he is yet to offer – as a result, some of Destiny‘s rarest weapons.
To avoid explicitly stating the list, he remains cryptic, so as not to entice Bungie to change anything in Destiny this weekend.
“If this week’s Xur (3/20) is the Original Xur, then we can assume that everything I’ve leaked in the past is true. If you go through my past posts, you can see the Original Xur’s schedule for 3/20 and 3/27. Hint: you will probably be more excited about what he has to sell on 3/27 than 3/20.”
To avoid losing any information in translation, here is Megaman’s Q&A about Destiny, Xur, and Bungie, where he discusses exactly what happens when Bungie changes the stock and how this affects any future predictions.
Q: Were Xur’s goods changed on 3/15
A. Yes.
Q. Was Xur’s list changed?
A. This was a different Xur from the “normal” Xur, so I cannot confirm any changes at this point.
Q. What do you mean “different Xur?”
A. There are 2 types of Xur. One has a standard list of goods for sale that can only be changed by patches. The other is controlled by Bungie, who can upload his data directly to the game without patches. The Xur that appeared on 3/15 was the latter type, directly controlled by Bungie.
Q. Can you get the list of the Xur that is controlled by Bungie (the latter type of Xur as described above)?
A. No. This Xur has his data directly uploaded on the day of his appearance. It is impossible to obtain data about this Xur on any other day.
Q. How did you figure this out?
A. Because a very similar thing has happened before. On January 30, the “original” Xur was scheduled to sell No Land Beyond. However on that day the Xur ended up selling Dragon’s Breath.
I tried accessing Xur’s list that day, but all I could find was the goods actually sold on that day.
I then tried accessing the list using a different method, but my access was denied and I was unable to see anything. The following week I was successfully able to access the original list.
Also, the actual appearance of Xur is always directly controlled by Bungie.
From these facts I deduced that the Xur on January 30th was different from the original Xur, in other words a Xur whose goods are directly controlled by Bungie.
The Xur who brought Red Death on 3/15 responded the same way as the Xur on 1/30 when I tried to access his data. In other words, this Xur was directly controlled by Bungie.
Q. Will you be able to get the data for future Xur’s?
A. Yes, as long as it’s the original Xur. But not if it’s the Xur that Bungie controls directly. As long as the original Xur does not appear, all leakers (myself included) will not be able to see his data in advance. Obviously, in that case all data that I leaked about Xur would basically become garbage.
Q. Can you make any predictions about future Xur’s based on the data you’ve already gotten?
A. Yes. As of the release of 1.1.1.0 I have gotten all of the original Xur’s data thru May 15. None of that data changed with 1.1.1.1, so I can predict only the original Xur’s goods, thru May 15.
Q. Can you get data other than Xur?
A. Yes. There were no signs of any changes to the data with the releases of 1.1.1.1. All Nightfall data remains accesible.
Conclusion:
I don’t know why Bungie chose this timing to manually control Xur. Was it to squash me, maimonguy, and other leakers? Was it a one-time-only thing? Was there some other reason? All I can say is that only Bungie knows the true plan for Xur.
If they only use the manually controlled Xur from now on, then there is the possibility that Thunderlord, Hard Light, MIDA Multi-Tool, Obsidian Mind, and other items will not get sold. On the other hand, that also would mean there is a chance he will sell Gjallarhorn, Mask of the Third Man, Red Death, and other items not in the Original Xur’s list.